Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy Mailbag: How to Value Christian Watson
Jake Trowbridge
We’re back with another round of dynasty-related questions, pulled from the Fantasy Life Community Discord—which I encourage you to join—and the beautiful birdies over at Bluesky.
This week, we explore the long-term values of two very popular rookies, the difference between a couple of receivers coming back from injuries, how to breathe a little life into a long-running league and SO MUCH MORE.
Let’s get into it…
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Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag
What WRs do you like/hate in the BTJ/Zay Flowers/Marvin Harrison range of guys?
First of all, thank you for not phrasing your question as “Love/Hate,” as that belongs to the big boss and I’d never want to infringe on that.
The range of receivers you’re talking about is a high-upside group that’s also viewed with a healthy amount of skepticism. You could add Ladd McConkey, Luther Burden and Jameson Williams to that list.
Out of this cadre, Zay Flowers feels like the sturdiest in terms of dynasty value. Not only has he performed like a versatile, top-tier receiver in back-to-back seasons—which isn’t something I can say about anyone else in that group—but Flowers has led the Ravens in targets, receptions and receiving yards every year he’s been in the league. And now there’s a decent chance the passing game improves (or at least becomes more aggressive) under new OC Declan Doyle.
The guy I simply can’t get on board with in this range is Luther Burden, who’s probably valued the highest in dynasty leagues right now. Heck, that’s partly WHY I’m not on board. Burden’s best stretch coincided with Rome Odunze’s injury. He had just as many games with NEGATIVE receiving yards as he did games with 70+ receiving yards. The Bears offense benefitted greatly from a turnover-heavy defense and some fourth quarter theatrics that are tough to bank on. I need to see more before I’m willing to pay that price for Burden.
In a rookie dynasty draft: Jadarian Price vs Jordyn Tyson.
It’s been awhile since my last rookie mock draft, but I'm still firmly in favor of Jordyn Tyson over Jadarian Price. And it doesn’t matter if you’re a contender or not.
I appreciate Price's upside, especially while Zach Charbonnet is out of office (so to speak). But we're mostly just HOPING he can step out of Jeremiyah Love's shadow and into a workhorse role with the Seahawks. The floor feels pretty nice in the short term, which makes for a compelling case in redraft, but Tyson has a significantly higher ceiling in dynasty. We’re talking cathedral ceiling. If he hits it, you’re going to be set for a long time.
I was offered Garrett Wilson for Parker Washington and a 2027 projected late first-round pick. Do I pull the trigger?
This is normally the type of question I’d save for the Rate My Trade series, but I’m powerless against any mention of Garrett Wilson.
Getting Wilson for that price is a steal in my book. And I really like Parker Washington! But there are so many more question marks around the depth chart in Jacksonville than there are at the Meadowlands.
I hate that I have to keep saying this, but I’ll do it until the world finally agrees: Garrett Wilson is arguably the most underrated receiver in fantasy football. A very smart and handsome young man even predicted in the Fantasy Life Magazine (available at a newsstand near you!) that Wilson will finish this year as a Top-8 WR:
“One could argue that Geno Smith is exactly what the fifth-year wide receiver needs right now: a consistent, veteran QB who’d rather sling the ball than scramble.”
What is your valuation on Christian Watson? If I move Rome Odunze, I might go after Watson to backfill with a cheaper option with equivalent upside.
There’s been a lot of questions about Odunze lately (and rightfully so), but Christian Watson is the perfect comparison to help explain my thoughts. Both of these guys have/had injury concerns. They’re both in similar territories as far as target trees are concerned. They could both be their respective team’s WR1, are competing with elite tight ends to be the No. 1 overall pass catcher and have exciting young WRs nipping at their heels.
The difference is how their respective injuries affect your lineups. When Watson is on the field, the odds of a big stat line are pretty high. And if the injury bug comes for him again, he goes to your bench. It’s simple.
But with Rome Odunze, the concern is how his recent injury will affect his on-field performance. Will you feel comfortable starting him without knowing what his “new normal” looks like? His spot in your lineup seems more precarious
How should a commissioner handle a long dormant trade offer being accepted after BREAKING NEWS (i.e. a player gets arrested/injured/retires)?
I’m reminded of Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement, and the shockwaves it sent through fantasy leagues when it happened. I heard story after story of long-pending trades that were suddenly smash accepted. I hate that.
It’s why I love that the Sleeper platform has an option to set a time limit on your trade offers. But ultimately, that’s an issue for team managers, not the commissioner. Do I personally think it’s extremely dishonorable and dick-ish behavior? Yes. And the manager who runs to click accept would have an enemy for life. But it’s also the responsibility of the person sending trade offers to keep track of these things and withdraw trades that have been steeping for too long.
I need to cut five guys from my roster. My options are below. Which three should I keep?
Tahj Brooks, Justice Hill, Phil Mafah, Ben Sinnott, Brandon Aiyuk, Darius Slayton, Brashard Smith, Audric Estime.
A few days ago I was mentally paralyzed by a decision I had to make that, frankly, didn't deserve as much brain power as I was giving it. I was really fretting over a pretty inconsequential thing. In the midst of all my brooding, an extremely distressing event occurred in my neighborhood that completely reset my perspective. It reminded me of all the many more important things that deserve my time and attention.
I’m very grateful for this submission because it gives me an opportunity to say this, not just to the person asking the question but to everyone reading: Follow your heart. Do what feels right. And have fun with it!
By “it” I don’t just mean this roster decision. I don’t even necessarily mean fantasy football. Take a minute to appreciate that this is something you and I get to ponder together. We get to spend parts of our days discussing the merits of Justice Hill. I think that’s a wonderful thing, but let this also be a reminder not to take it so seriously. And to make sure that we’re giving adequate energy to the things in our lives that really matter and that make a difference for others.
Thanks for letting me get that off my chest. I appreciate you all for spending part of your days with me.
… Brandon Aiyuk, Darius Slayton and Brashard Smith.
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